India- Population Billionaire?

Fig. India- the most populated country

India- Population Billionaire?

In April 2023 India officially surpassed China (another billionaire) as the most populous country.

Once again the debate of Demographic Dividend vs Demographic Disaster starts to heat up.

Demographic Dividend- refers to economic growth potential that can be reaped from the increasing working age population (15-64 years of age).

India will experience this depending upon-

1. Increased investment in Health and Education- bridging the gap via industry-academia collaboration. So that Human Resource is converted into Human Capital.
2. Improving Infrastructure bottlenecks- connectivity for rural and semi-rural. It also includes improvement in housing, electricity, water, sanitation, etc.
3. Boost to Innovation and Entrepreneurship- skilling job seekers with the market demands for solving India-centric problems.
4. Better planning of cities- estimated that by 2050 almost 50% India will live in urban areas- Nobody wants more cities with AQI like Delhi.

Demographic Disaster- no definition required here.

If India continues on the current path of-

1. Low Women LFPR- it’s trotting at ~37% (2023).
“A bird cannot fly with it’s one wing alone” -Swami Vivekananda
2. Lack of employment generation- especially in the Manufacturing sector- because it is labour intensive.
3. Rapid Urbanization- which has a long index of traffic jams, high rent, heatwaves, urban flooding, packed metros, etc
4. Narrow tax base- since less than 5% of India pays income tax.

If this continues then we are seeing a very dismal picture.

So, India has to create an urgency to harness the dividend or we might slip into demographic disaster.

by Rakesh Leel